SIMID Workshop 2012

Wednesday APRIL 25, 2012

Social Contact Data Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases

Mirjam Kretzchmar: Estimating incidence and basic reproduction numbers for pertussis from serological and social contact data
Kim Van Kerckhove: Studying behavioural change as a result of infection with A(H1N1)v using contact data
Niel Hens: Current and future topics in modelling contact data

Epidemic Modelling

Jacco Wallinga: Searching for variables that explain the variability in transmission intensity of influenza
Amin Azmon: On the estimation of the reproduction number based on misreported data
Dennis te Beest: Modulation of the generation interval of influenza A(H1N1) by social setting

Topics in the Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Data – Part I

Matthias An Der Heiden: Estimates for the HIV-prevalence and -incidence in Germany in a back-calculation framework
Stijn Jaspers: Development of a new semi-parametric mixture model for interval censored data, with applications in antimicrobial resistance
Adriaan Blommaert: Data Mining for Longitudinal Data under Multicollinearity and Time Dependence using Penalized Generalized Estimating Equations
Ziv Shkedy: Time homogeneity modeling of HCV among injecting drug users

Symbolic Regression for Modeling Epidemiological Systems

Poster session & drinks

Spatial Analysis of Infectious Disease Data

Leonhard Held: Assessing the Impact of a Movement Network on the Spatiotemporal Spread of Infectious Diseases
Christel Faes: Bluetongue BTV8: the spatial occurrence of the vector and the disease
Chellafe Ensoy: Studying the effect of animal movement on the spread of Bluetongue
Jonas Reijniers: A curve of thresholds governs plague epizootics in Central Asia

Survival Methods

Andreas Wienke: Frailty models for bivariate current status data: an application to serological data
Steven Abrams: Modelling individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of non-immunizing infections: an application to Parvovirus B19
Ruth Nysen: Testing Goodness-of-Fit of Parametric Models for Censored Data

Topics in the Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Data – Part II

Piero Manfredi: Public information in models of vaccinating behaviour & takeoff of MMR uptake in Italy
James Wood: Estimating from multi-sera data at multiple time-points
Mathieu Andraud: The contribution of plasma cells to antibody kinetics: An update with application to hepatitis A
Nele Goeyvaerts: Multivariate decay models for longitudinal censored maternal antibody levels

Quantifying Uncertainty in Economic Evaluation

Philippe Beutels: Economic evaluation of health care interventions with special focus on vaccination.
Joke Bilcke: Sources of uncertainty in health economic evaluations and how to account for them.
Mark Jit: Dynamic models and model uncertainty with examples from models of recent vaccines.
Tony Newall: A practical example of uncertainty: the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in adults

Topics in the Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Data – Part III

Chris Jewell: Real time Bayesian Risk Prediction for Livestock Epidemics
Yannick Vandendyck: Eight years of internet-based monitoring of influenza-like illness in Flanders
Benson Ogunjimi: An immunological view on VZV exogenous boosting and the possible experimental caveats

Closing of the SIMID workshop

Part I

Ziv Shkedy: welcome + short introduction to the session
Piero Manfredi: Introduction to the project
Emilio Zagheni -Elisabetta de Cao: Contacts vs time as varicella transmission determinants
Emanuele Del Fava: Estimating contact matrices and R0 in the EU

Part II

Ziv Shkedy: Serological samples for VZV, what does this mean?
Laura Fumanelli: Synthetic contact matrices for all European countries”
Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba: The last contact (does boosting matter?)
Giorgio Guzzetta: The Hope Simpson’s hypothesis explains zoster incidence data well

Part III

Piero Poletti: Robustly predicting the impact of varicella vaccine on zoster
Alessia Melegaro: Robust cost-effectiveness evaluations of the impact of varicella vaccination
Piero Manfredi: Summary and conclusions