SIMID | Simulation Models of Infectious Disease

SIMID Workshop 2012

Wednesday APRIL 25, 2012

Social Contact Data Relevant for the Spread of Infectious Diseases

  • Mirjam Kretzchmar: Estimating incidence and basic reproduction numbers for pertussis from serological and social contact data
  • Kim Van Kerckhove: Studying behavioural change as a result of infection with A(H1N1)v using contact data
  • Niel Hens: Current and future topics in modelling contact data

Epidemic Modelling

  • Jacco Wallinga: Searching for variables that explain the variability in transmission intensity of influenza
  • Amin Azmon: On the estimation of the reproduction number based on misreported data
  • Dennis te Beest: Modulation of the generation interval of influenza A(H1N1) by social setting

Topics in the Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Data – Part I

  • Matthias An Der Heiden: Estimates for the HIV-prevalence and -incidence in Germany in a back-calculation framework
  • Stijn Jaspers: Development of a new semi-parametric mixture model for interval censored data, with applications in antimicrobial resistance
  • Adriaan Blommaert: Data Mining for Longitudinal Data under Multicollinearity and Time Dependence using Penalized Generalized Estimating Equations
  • Ziv Shkedy: Time homogeneity modeling of HCV among injecting drug users

Symbolic Regression for Modeling Epidemiological Systems

  • Katya Vladislavleva: An Introduction
  • Lander Willem & Sean Stijven: Applications

Poster session & drinks

Thursday APRIL 26, 2012

Spatial Analysis of Infectious Disease Data

  • Leonhard Held: Assessing the Impact of a Movement Network on the Spatiotemporal Spread of Infectious Diseases
  • Christel Faes: Bluetongue BTV8: the spatial occurrence of the vector and the disease
  • Chellafe Ensoy: Studying the effect of animal movement on the spread of Bluetongue
  • Jonas Reijniers: A curve of thresholds governs plague epizootics in Central Asia

Survival Methods

  • Andreas Wienke: Frailty models for bivariate current status data: an application to  serological data
  • Steven Abrams: Modelling individual heterogeneity in the acquisition of non-immunizing infections: an application to Parvovirus B19
  • Ruth Nysen: Testing Goodness-of-Fit of Parametric Models for Censored Data

Topics in the Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Data – Part II

  • Piero Manfredi: Public information in models of vaccinating behaviour & takeoff of MMR uptake in Italy
  • James Wood: Estimating from multi-sera data at multiple time-points
  • Mathieu Andraud: The contribution of plasma cells to antibody kinetics: An update with application to hepatitis A
  • Nele Goeyvaerts: Multivariate decay models for longitudinal censored maternal antibody levels

Quantifying Uncertainty in Economic Evaluation 

  • Philippe Beutels: Economic evaluation of health care interventions with special focus on vaccination.
  • Joke Bilcke: Sources of uncertainty in health economic evaluations and how to account for them.
  • Mark Jit: Dynamic models and model uncertainty with examples from models of recent vaccines.
  • Tony Newall: A practical example of uncertainty: the cost-effectiveness of influenza vaccination in adults

Friday APRIL 27, 2012

Topics in the Statistical Analysis of Infectious Disease Data – Part III

  •  Chris Jewell: Real time Bayesian Risk Prediction for Livestock Epidemics
  • Yannick Vandendyck: Eight years of internet-based monitoring of influenza-like illness in Flanders
  • Benson Ogunjimi: An immunological view on VZV exogenous boosting and the possible experimental caveats

Closing of the SIMID workshop


ECDC Satellite Workshop: Modeling Varicella Transmission in the EU

Part I

  • Ziv Shkedy: welcome + short introduction to the session
  • Piero Manfredi: Introduction to the project
  • Emilio Zagheni -Elisabetta de Cao: Contacts vs time as varicella transmission determinants
  • Emanuele Del Fava: Estimating contact matrices and R0 in the EU

Part II

  • Ziv Shkedy: Serological samples for VZV, what does this mean?
  • Laura Fumanelli: Synthetic contact matrices for all European countries”
  • Gianpaolo Scalia Tomba: The last contact (does boosting matter?)
  • Giorgio Guzzetta: The Hope Simpson’s hypothesis explains zoster incidence data well

Part III

  • Piero Poletti: Robustly predicting the impact of varicella vaccine on zoster
  • Alessia Melegaro: Robust cost-effectiveness evaluations of the impact of varicella vaccination
  • Piero Manfredi: Summary and conclusions