SIMID | Simulation Models of Infectious Disease

The influence of age-specific behaviors on COVID-19 spread and control efforts | NEW PAPER

The influence of age-specific behaviors on COVID-19 spread and control efforts | NEW PAPER

Our latest study examines how different age groups shaped the spread of COVID-19 through differences in susceptibility, infectivity, and social interactions. With our new model, we can measure each group’s role in the spread of disease and evaluate the comparative advantage of distinct public health interventions.

We modeled the early outbreak of COVID-19 in Portugal using a technique called the Next Generation Approach (NGA). By analyzing age-specific factors such as contact patterns, susceptibility, and infectivity, we sought to identify the key drivers of transmission and their contributions to the spread of the disease as informed by basic reproduction number, R0.

We found that adults in their thirties, forties and fifties are the primary drivers of new infections, accounting for 64% of transmission. This is due to their high levels of social interaction, even though they are less likely to catch the virus. Meanwhile, individuals aged 70+ have higher susceptibility but contribute less to transmission because of lower contact rates.

Interventions targeting the 30–59 age group, such as increasing personal protective equipment (PPE) use, can significantly reduce infections. A 10% reduction in susceptibility to disease in these groups could not only lower infections within this age group by up to 17% but also in other age groups by up to 6%. This underscores the importance of focusing on those driving transmission rather than just those most vulnerable to infection.

This model requires minimal data and can quickly guide real-time public health strategies for emerging diseases. This approach is extendable to other diseases and can be rapidly adapted as new data emerges during an outbreak can be rapidly incorporated. Overall, this allows for the continuous assessment of the main contributors to disease spread and the projection of the effects of future interventions.

It has been great to work together with our collaborator in Portugal. Congrats to all authors!

Read our paper here

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