Given the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19, we are are intensively modelling how intervention strategies can fight the spread of the virus using our VSC supercomputers, in collaboration with Researchers Sorbonne Université. See our movie! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0PZukXy8qU&feature=youtu.be
We used a simulation-based model of viral transmission to test the impact of different intervention measures for the control of COVID-19. The use of an antiviral drug, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine and isolation, results in a significant decrease of the mean final size and the peak incidence of local outbreaks of COVID-19, provided delays in contact tracing are small. Integrating antiviral drugs together with contact tracing and quarantine is predicted through this model to be an effective tool for the control of local outbreaks of COVID-19. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038182v1
European countries are facing enormous pressure on their healthcare systems as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide a real time overview of the relative pressure on healthcare systems by analyzing the proportion of COVID-19 related deaths and COVID-19 active cases relative to the number of hospital beds, number of medical doctors, and healthcare expenditure, in European countries. More info at www.covid-hcpressure.org
Are you working from home? What about the kids? Would you still shake someone’s hand? If we all answer this short questionnaire en masse, experts will be better able to assess the evolution of the corona curve. The impact of the measures will only be visible in the hospitalisation rates 10 to 14 days after they were launched. This is due to the incubation period and how COVID19 progresses. more info: https://www.uantwerpen.be/en/projects/corona-study/
If half of the Belgians would telework, it can really make a difference in #flattenthecurve! Using our meta-population model for Belgium, we are analysing many distancing scenarios and made a first press release in de Standaard on March 17. See our cover-19 page for other ongoing projects.
The cost-effectiveness results of typhoid vaccination for 73 Gavi-eligible countries are now available online on Take on Typhoid. The website shows the disease and economic burden of each country, as well as the impact of different typhoid vaccination strategies. The study was published in Lancet Infectious Diseases.
Elise Kuylen went to the European Scientific Conference on Applied Infectious Disease Epidemiology (ESCAIDE) to present her work on measles transmission. Tapiwa Ganyani, Pietro Coletti and Lander Willem went to the 7th International Conference on Infectious Diseases Dynamics (Epidemics) to promote ongoing work on overdispersion, flu and RSV. Both conferences were a succes! (more…)