SIMID | Simulation Models of Infectious Disease

SIMID Workshop 2010

Monday APRIL 12, 2010

Mini-workshop: presentation of new book

Niel Hens, Ziv Shkedy, Marc Aerts, Christel Faes, Pierre Van Damme and Philippe Beutels: Modeling Infectious Disease Parameters Based on Serological and Social Contact Data: A Modern Statistical Perspective. (Springer Press, forthcoming.)

  • Ziv Shkedy: Mathematical models for infectious diseases: an introduction
  • Marc Aerts: Estimating the force of infection from seroprevalence data
  • Niel Hens: Estimating and applying WAIFW-matrices in mathematical models

Introduction to the SIMID project, sponsored by the institute for Promotion of Innovation by Science and Technology in Flanders (IWT)

  • Philippe Beutels

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases methods

  • Nele Goeyvaerts: Using data on social contacts and serological status to estimate transmission dynamics and to infer on immunological processes (with applications to VZV and parvovirus B19)
  • Jacco Wallinga: Stratified populations, contact patterns and infection chains
  • Gail Potter: Estimation of within-Household Contact Networks
  • Niel Hens: Modeling incomplete Epidemic trees
  • Gunther Zauner: Comparison of individual-based models vs dynamic compartiment and cohort models for communicable diseases
  • James Wood: Using a bayasion sequential Monte Carlo approach to estimate transmission parameters for mumps in Australia
  • Piero Manfredi: Artificial contact data
  • Olivier Lejeune: Estimating travel importance using contact patterns and serology: application to hepatitis A

Tuesday APRIL 13, 2010

Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases – applications

Influenza H1N1

  • Marc Van Ranst: Influenza H1N1 in Belgium in 2009-2010: evolution and mitigation strategies in the European context
  • Ira Longini: Mathematical Models for the Transmission and Control of Pandemic H1N1 Influenza
  • John Edmunds: Evaluating H1N1 vaccination options: a real-time policy analysis


  • Kari Auranen:  A dynamic transmission model of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination applied to Finland
  • Alessia Melegaro: Dynamic transmission models of pneumococcal vaccines: the UK experience
  • Thierry Van Effelterre: A dynamic model of pneumococcal infection in the U.S.: Implications for prevention through vaccination
  • Niki Popper: Dynamic modular simulation techniques for modeling of transmission and vaccination of pneumoccoci

Health economic evaluation of vaccination programmes

  • Philippe Beutels: Concepts of economic evaluations applied to vaccination
  • Joke Bilcke: Quantifying uncertainty in health economic evaluation
  • Marc Brisson: Economic evaluation of VZV vaccination in Canada
  • Albert Jan Van Hoeck: Economic evaluation of VZV vaccination options for children and adults in The UK
  • Maarten Postma: A micro simulation model applied to pertussis vaccination in The Netherlands
  • Benoit Dervaux:  Cost-effectiveness analysis of Meningococcal C vaccination in France
  • An Creemers: Estimating unrelated costs of pneumococcal infections

Wednesday APRIL 14, 2010

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines: effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and policy making

  • John Edmunds: Economic evaluations of HPV vaccination: an overview
  • Marc Brisson: Influence of parameter and model structure uncertainty on estimated HPV vaccine effectiveness
  • Mark Jit: Structural and model uncertainty in estimating the cost-utility of HPV vaccination in The UK
  • Marc Arbyn: Empirical evidence on HPV vaccine efficacy and effectiveness: current state of knowledge
  • Philippe Beutels: Decision making on HPV vaccination in Belgium
  • Mark Jit: The use of epidemiological, modeling and economic evidence for HPV decisions in The UK