Niel Hens reflects in an interview on ‘De Ochtend’ (Radio 1)
Five years ago, Belgium was on the verge of its first COVID-19 lockdown. This morning on Radio 1, Niel Hens, looked back on those crucial early weeks and discussed new insights from recent studies.
In the interview, Hens highlighted that, overall, Belgium handled the crisis relatively well. However, our ability to model the broader impact of viral transmission and mitigation measures has significantly improved since then. These advancements allow for a more accurate evaluation of different scenarios and better preparedness for future pandemics.
Vaccination rollout prevent a lot of deaths
One of the key findings discussed was the critical role vaccination played in reducing COVID-19 deaths and limiting the duration of strict measures. The study examined what would have happened if no vaccines had been available. The conclusion? Belgium would likely have faced two additional years of stringent restrictions to control the virus and prevent overwhelming the healthcare system.
Niel Hens at GEOMED in Sept 2024 | Photographer: Matthias Benaets
“We were able to prevent a significant number of deaths thanks to vaccination,” Hens explained. “If vaccines had not been available, we would have needed prolonged measures to achieve the same level of protection.” This finding underscores the importance of investing in vaccine development and preparedness for future pandemics.
Children’s role in transmission shifted over time
Another insight discussed concerns the changing role of children in virus transmission. At the start of the pandemic, models suggested that closing schools was not the most effective strategy. However, as vaccination campaigns progressed, children (who were vaccinated later) became a more significant source of infections.
“In early 2021, as adults were getting vaccinated, children’s role in transmission increased. By autumn 2021, we saw a notable rise in school-related outbreaks, not just among students but also among teachers,” Hens noted. This shift highlights the importance of dynamic policy decisions that adapt to changing circumstances during a pandemic. “People want a yes or no answer, but it often depends on the context.”
Lessons for the future
Reflecting on the pandemic response, Hens emphasized the importance of data-driven decision-making. While Belgium made many good choices, the lack of robust modeling tools at the time sometimes hindered the ability to predict the full impact of different measures.
“We need to ensure that, in the future, we have the right methods and objective data to guide decision-making,” Hens said. “The goal is not just to analyze what happened, but to learn from it so we can respond even better next time.”
As research continues, these insights will help policymakers prepare more effectively for future health crises, ensuring that the right measures are in place at the right time.
