Varicella Emulator

We establish the power of our approach with a high dimensional model from van Hoek et al (2012) with correlated inputs to explore cost-effectiveness of varicella-zoster vaccination programs. With symbolic regression, we selected 12 driving parameters from the 185 inputs. Here, the interactive prediction plots for the gain in quality adjusted life years (QALYs) are shown (Legend).

Legend Varicella

chi_allages
Change in Zoster reactivation in Varicella vaccinees versus non vaccinees (chi) (%).
durboost_allages
Average duration of natural protection from herpes zoster after varicella re-exposure (year).
takzos_7579
Zoster vaccine uptake for ages 75-79y (effective protection by the vaccine) (%).
wanzos_allages
Average duration of protection from herpes zoster vaccine (year).
to2_10
Probability of a +65y to infect a 2-3y old per year (based on a social contact matrix from UK study population combined with age-specific transmission rates).
to2_9
Probability of a 45-64y to infect a 2-3y old per year.
to3_10
Probability of a +65y to infect a 4-10y old per year.
to3_9
Probability of a 45-64y to infect a 4-10y old per year.
to4_8
Probability of a 35-44y to infect a 11-16y old per year.
to5_10
Probability of a +65y to infect a 17-21y old per year.
to8_10
Probability of a +65y to infect a 35-44y old per year.
to8_8
Probability of a 35-44y to infect a 35-44y old per year.