We published technical notes on our latest results regarding the short-term prediction modelling of hospital and ICU admissions, and scenario analyses based on dynamic transmission modelling. Technical note from March 25th, 2021 Technical note from April 15th, 2021 Technical note from May 6th, 2021
Prof. Phillippe Beutels gave on January 14th, an invited lecture at the UAntwerp spectrumlezingen entitled "Infectiemodellen als kristallen bol? Covid-19 en gezondheid, economie, welzijn en rechtvaardigheid". You can watch the recording at https://eu-lti.bbcollab.com/collab/ui/session/playback (in Dutch).
We have merged our ongoing SARS-CoV-2 related activities in a one-page newsletter. It links to different resources and we hope you find it useful despite that it covers many topics, including more technical ones. Please don't hesitate to ask for more details. The first newsletter is available on our COVID-19 page.
Given the pandemic outbreak of COVID-19, we are are intensively modelling how intervention strategies can fight the spread of the virus using our VSC supercomputers, in collaboration with Researchers Sorbonne Université. See our movie! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0PZukXy8qU&feature=youtu.be
We used a simulation-based model of viral transmission to test the impact of different intervention measures for the control of COVID-19. The use of an antiviral drug, in combination with contact tracing, quarantine and isolation, results in a significant decrease of the mean final size and the peak incidence of local outbreaks of COVID-19, provided delays in contact tracing are small. Integrating antiviral drugs together with contact tracing and quarantine is predicted through this model to be an effective tool for the control of local outbreaks of COVID-19. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.19.20038182v1
European countries are facing enormous pressure on their healthcare systems as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. We provide a real time overview of the relative pressure on healthcare systems by analyzing the proportion of COVID-19 related deaths and COVID-19 active cases relative to the number of hospital beds, number of medical doctors, and healthcare expenditure, in European countries. More info at www.covid-hcpressure.org
Are you working from home? What about the kids? Would you still shake someone’s hand? If we all answer this short questionnaire en masse, experts will be better able to assess the evolution of the corona curve. The impact of the measures will only be visible in the hospitalisation rates 10 to 14 days after they were launched. This is due to the incubation period and how COVID19 progresses. more info: https://www.uantwerpen.be/en/projects/corona-study/
If half of the Belgians would telework, it can really make a difference in #flattenthecurve! Using our meta-population model for Belgium, we are analysing many distancing scenarios and made a first press release in de Standaard on March 17. See our cover-19 page for other ongoing projects.